# SB 1507 QSBS Fiscal Impact Simulator

> Monte Carlo fiscal impact simulator for Oregon SB 1507 (QSBS tax decoupling).
> Models four loss channels across a configurable time horizon with 4,000+ iterations.

URL: https://yex.ai/tools/sb1507-fiscal-impact-model
API: https://yex.ai/api/tools/sb1507/simulate

## Navigation Guide

The tool uses hash-based routing within a single page. All URLs below are anchored to `https://yex.ai/tools/sb1507-fiscal-impact-model`.

### Tabs

| Tab | Hash Route | Description |
|-----|-----------|-------------|
| Dashboard | `#dashboard` | Interactive simulation with summary cards, channel breakdown, and main chart |
| Model & Parameters | `#model` | Channel drill-down with posterior distributions and parameter controls |
| Research | `#research` | Evidence report with 15 sections of data, tables, and citations |
| SB 1507 | `#sb1507` | Bill text analysis and legislative context |
| Agent Guide | `#agent-guide` | Machine-readable simulation overview with live data |

### Model Channel Sections

| Channel | Hash Route | Description |
|---------|-----------|-------------|
| Companies | `#model/companies` | Mid-size firm departures (500+ employee pool) |
| Startups | `#model/startups` | VC-funded startup formation loss |
| Investors | `#model/investors` | HNWI angel/LP out-migration |
| Founders | `#model/founders` | Founder relocation and inbound deterrence |

### Research Sections

| Section | Hash Route |
|---------|-----------|
| Executive Summary | `#research/executive-summary` |
| Research Map | `#research/research-map` |
| QSBS National Landscape | `#research/qsbs-national-landscape` |
| Projected Revenue | `#research/projected-revenue` |
| LRO Methodology | `#research/lro-methodology` |
| Revenue Baselines | `#research/revenue-baselines` |
| OR vs WA Tax Comparison | `#research/tax-comparison` |
| Migration & Demographics | `#research/migration` |
| Per-Company Fiscal Impact | `#research/fiscal-impact` |
| Behavioral Economics | `#research/behavioral-economics` |
| The Vancouver Arbitrage | `#research/vancouver-arbitrage` |
| Company Departures | `#research/case-studies` |
| The Proponent Case | `#research/proponent-case` |
| Scenario Analysis | `#research/scenario-tables` |
| Works Cited | `#research/works-cited` |

## Parameter Reference

The simulation uses 21 parameters across four loss channels. Each parameter defines a P20-P80 bounded distribution.

### Companies Channel

#### Starting Firm Pool (500+ employees)

- **ID**: `companyStartingPool`
- **Unit**: firms
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 280 - 360
- **Slider Range**: 150 - 500
- **Distribution**: normal
- **Evidence Level**: research
- **Description**: Year-0 count of Oregon firms with 500+ employees. This is the initial stock from which the simulation draws Binomial departures; organic replenishment partially offsets exits each year.
- **Rationale**: QualityInfo 2025 census reports 319 firms at 500+ employees. Uncertainty arises from classification boundaries (contractors vs W-2, seasonal workers, multi-state headcount allocation). Firms near the 500-employee threshold may shift in or out quarter-to-quarter.
- **Sources**: [QualityInfo: Snapshot of Oregon Firms by Size Class (2025)](https://qualityinfo.org/-/a-snapshot-of-oregon-firms-by-size-class-2025)

#### Employees per Departing Firm

- **ID**: `companyEmployees`
- **Unit**: employees
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 350 - 650
- **Slider Range**: 100 - 1000
- **Distribution**: lognormal
- **Evidence Level**: research
- **Description**: Number of employees at a typical departing mid-sized firm. Drives payroll and PIT withholding calculations.
- **Rationale**: The at-risk pool is firms with 500+ employees (QualityInfo 2025). The 400-600 range captures the most mobile tier — large enough to generate significant tax revenue, small enough that relocation is feasible. Larger firms (1000+) have more inertia.
- **Sources**: [QualityInfo: Snapshot of Oregon Firms by Size Class (2025)](https://qualityinfo.org/-/a-snapshot-of-oregon-firms-by-size-class-2025)

#### Average Salary ($K/yr)

- **ID**: `companyAvgSalary`
- **Unit**: $K/yr
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 100 - 200
- **Slider Range**: 50 - 300
- **Distribution**: lognormal
- **Evidence Level**: research
- **Description**: Average annual salary at the departing firm. Directly determines PIT withholding and payroll tax base.
- **Rationale**: BLS starting salary for Oregon: $67,200. Portland tech salaries range $122K-$199K (QualityInfo), with senior roles at $184K-$281K (Built In). A $100K-$200K P20/P80 range captures the typical mid-to-large traded-sector firm.
- **Sources**: [QualityInfo: Snapshot of Oregon Firms by Size Class (2025)](https://qualityinfo.org/-/a-snapshot-of-oregon-firms-by-size-class-2025), [SB 1507 measure overview (OLIS)](https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Measures/Overview/SB1507)

#### Gross Revenue ($M/yr)

- **ID**: `companyGrossRevenue`
- **Unit**: $M/yr
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 150 - 300
- **Slider Range**: 50 - 500
- **Distribution**: lognormal
- **Evidence Level**: directional
- **Description**: Annual gross revenue of the departing firm. Drives Corporate Activity Tax (CAT) calculation.
- **Rationale**: Reference firm: $200M revenue for a 500-employee tech company. Revenue-per-employee ratios vary by industry: tech firms typically generate $300K-$600K per employee, traditional manufacturing $200K-$400K. The $150M-$300M range spans a reasonable mid-market tech firm.
- **Sources**: [SB 1507 measure overview (OLIS)](https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Measures/Overview/SB1507)

#### Net Profit Margin

- **ID**: `companyProfitMargin`
- **Unit**: rate
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 0.08 - 0.22
- **Slider Range**: 0.01 - 0.4
- **Distribution**: beta
- **Evidence Level**: assumption
- **Description**: Net profit margin of the departing firm. Drives corporate excise tax and local business income tax calculations.
- **Rationale**: Reference: 15% net margin for a mid-sized tech firm. S&P 500 average net margin is ~11%. Tech sector averages 15-25%. A P20/P80 of 8%-22% captures uncertainty across industries and firm stages.
- **Sources**: [SB 1507 measure overview (OLIS)](https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Measures/Overview/SB1507)

### Startups Channel

#### Employees per Lost Startup

- **ID**: `startupEmployees`
- **Unit**: employees
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 5 - 16
- **Slider Range**: 2 - 50
- **Distribution**: lognormal
- **Evidence Level**: directional
- **Description**: Day-0 headcount of a representative early-stage startup that fails to form in Oregon due to reduced VC investment from QSBS elimination. Growth over time is handled by the startup maturation schedule.
- **Rationale**: This is the INITIAL Seed-stage footprint. Nationally, Pre-Seed teams have <5 employees; Seed-stage <10; Series A median has shrunk from 57 (2020) to 44 (2024). Elevate Capital's Oregon portfolio averages ~13 employees across all stages (92 startups, 1,200+ jobs). Oregon's deal composition skews heavily toward smaller, earlier-stage checks — deal sizes are down 26% vs national +28%. A 5-16 range captures the Seed-to-early-Series-A window where most Oregon deals occur. Cohort maturation (growth × survival) is applied separately via startupMaturationSchedule.
- **Sources**: [Current State of Venture Capital: Oregon Trends](https://elevate.vc/current-state-venture-capital-industry-oregon-trends-challenges/), [Elevate Capital Celebrates 10-Year Milestone (PRNewswire, 2025)](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/elevate-capital-celebrates-10-year-milestone-in-funding-underrepresented-entrepreneurs-302701729.html), [Startup Fundraising Indicators: A Guide (OAK'S LAB)](https://www.oakslab.com/story/startup-fundraising-indicators), [Q4 2024 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor](https://nvca.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Q4-2024-PitchBook-NVCA-Venture-Monitor.pdf), [Campello & Junqueira: Tax Incentives and Venture Capital Risk-Taking (Oxford Saïd working paper, 2025)](https://oxfordtax.sbs.ox.ac.uk/sitefiles/wp25.10-guilherme-junqueira.pdf), [SBA Office of Advocacy: Oregon 2024 Profile](https://advocacy.sba.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Oregon.pdf)

#### Avg Salary at Lost Startup

- **ID**: `startupAvgSalary`
- **Unit**: $K/yr
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 96 - 130
- **Slider Range**: 60 - 200
- **Distribution**: normal
- **Evidence Level**: directional
- **Description**: Average annual salary at a representative early-stage startup. Tax revenue is computed bottom-up: Payroll × (PIT 8.5% + Employer Payroll 2.0%). Corporate profit taxes are excluded — startups operate at a loss.
- **Rationale**: Oregon QCEW 'Information' sector (NAICS 51) average: $129,052 (2023). Seed-stage CEOs: $147K; CTOs: $134K-$142K; Series A CEOs: $170K. Mid-level engineers in Portland-tier hubs: $90K-$130K; senior engineers: up to $162K. Blending technical and non-technical roles for a 10-person startup yields $100K-$120K average. The $96K-$130K range spans that blended estimate with moderate uncertainty.
- **Sources**: [Oregon Blue Book: Economy — Wages](https://sos.oregon.gov/blue-book/Pages/facts/economy-wages.aspx), [A Guide to Startup Compensation (Kruze Consulting)](https://kruzeconsulting.com/blog/startup-compensation-guide/), [Oregon Payroll Tax Calculator & Employer Requirements (GoCo)](https://www.goco.io/blog/oregon-employer-payroll-taxes-guide), [Payroll and Self-Employment Tax Information (TriMet)](https://trimet.org/taxinfo/), [SBA Office of Advocacy: Oregon 2024 Profile](https://advocacy.sba.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Oregon.pdf)

#### Founder–Startup Pipeline Coupling

- **ID**: `founderStartupCoupling`
- **Unit**: fraction
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 0.1 - 0.25
- **Slider Range**: 0 - 1
- **Distribution**: normal
- **Evidence Level**: assumption
- **Description**: How strongly the founder inbound penalty transmits to the VC deal pipeline. At 0, the startup baseline is independent of founder departures. At 1, the deal pipeline shrinks at the same rate as the founder pipeline.
- **Rationale**: Most VC deals come from first-time founders unaffected by the founder departure model. A 10–25% coupling reflects the minority share of deals that depend on serial entrepreneurs in the founder pipeline.
- **Sources**: [SB 1507 measure overview (OLIS)](https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Measures/Overview/SB1507)

### Investors Channel

#### Starting Investor Pool (HNWI Angels/LPs)

- **ID**: `investorStartingPool`
- **Unit**: investors
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 4500 - 6500
- **Slider Range**: 2000 - 10000
- **Distribution**: normal
- **Evidence Level**: directional
- **Description**: Year-0 count of active angel investors and venture LPs residing in Oregon. Derived from OR DOR high-income filer data and SEC/ACA private-market participation benchmarks.
- **Rationale**: OR DOR 2023: 65,420 returns at $300K+ AGI. Multiplied by 8.5% private-market participation rate (SEC/ACA benchmarks) yields ~5,500. The 4,500-6,500 range reflects uncertainty in the participation rate (7%-10%).
- **Sources**: [Rauh & Shyu: Behavioral Responses to State Income Taxation of High Earners (NBER / AEJ 2024)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w26349)

#### Investor Deployed Capital

- **ID**: `investorPortfolio`
- **Unit**: $M
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 0.75 - 1.25
- **Slider Range**: 0.1 - 5
- **Distribution**: lognormal
- **Evidence Level**: directional
- **Description**: Total deployed venture capital for a representative active angel investor. Combined with realization rate to compute annual capital gains subject to Oregon PIT.
- **Rationale**: Active angels typically build portfolios of 20-25 companies with median check sizes of $25K-$50K plus follow-on in ~29% of deals. Total deployed capital reaches $750K-$1.25M over a 5-year investing period. Angel Resource Institute and Wiltbank research establish these benchmarks.
- **Sources**: [Angel Returns Beat All Asset Classes (ACA / Angel Resource Institute)](https://angelcapitalassociation.org/blog/angel-returns-beat-classes/), [Wiltbank & Boeker: ACEF Angel Performance Project (ACA / Kauffman Foundation)](https://www.angelcapitalassociation.org/data/Documents/Resources/AngelGroupResarch/1d%20-%20Resources%20-%20Research/ACEF%20Angel%20Performance%20Project%2004.28.09.pdf)

#### Annual Portfolio Realization Rate

- **ID**: `investorRealizationRate`
- **Unit**: rate
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 0.05 - 0.12
- **Slider Range**: 0.01 - 0.3
- **Distribution**: beta
- **Evidence Level**: directional
- **Description**: Fraction of an investor's portfolio that exits or liquidates annually. Drives the capital gains component of lost tax revenue.
- **Rationale**: Mean time to liquidity for early-stage investments is 8-10 years. In any single year, 5%-12% of holdings reach a termination event. Returns follow a pronounced power law: 52%-56% of exits result in partial/total loss, while top 10% generate ~90% of cash returns. Average return multiple: 2.6× over 3.5-4 years (27% IRR, Wiltbank-Boeker).
- **Sources**: [Wiltbank & Boeker: ACEF Angel Performance Project (ACA / Kauffman Foundation)](https://www.angelcapitalassociation.org/data/Documents/Resources/AngelGroupResarch/1d%20-%20Resources%20-%20Research/ACEF%20Angel%20Performance%20Project%2004.28.09.pdf), [Angel Returns Beat All Asset Classes (ACA / Angel Resource Institute)](https://angelcapitalassociation.org/blog/angel-returns-beat-classes/)

#### Investor Ordinary Income

- **ID**: `investorOrdinaryIncome`
- **Unit**: $K/yr
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 266 - 434
- **Slider Range**: 100 - 800
- **Distribution**: normal
- **Evidence Level**: directional
- **Description**: Annual ordinary income (salary, business income, market yields) for a departing investor. Combined with capital gains to compute total lost PIT at 9.9%.
- **Rationale**: OR DOR data: HNWI migrants ($200K+ AGI) carry avg $35,100 in state income tax liability, implying ~$354K taxable income at 9.9%. Consistent with SEC accreditation thresholds ($200K individual / $300K joint). Many angels are executives, serial entrepreneurs, or professionals.
- **Sources**: [Oregon DOR: Tax Year 2023 Personal Income Tax Statistics](https://www.oregon.gov/dor/gov-research/pages/personal_income_tax_statistics.aspx), [Rauh & Shyu: Behavioral Responses to State Income Taxation of High Earners (NBER / AEJ 2024)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w26349)

### Founders Channel

#### QSBS Realization Drop

- **ID**: `founderRealizationDrop`
- **Unit**: %
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 5 - 9
- **Slider Range**: 0 - 25
- **Distribution**: normal
- **Evidence Level**: directional
- **Description**: Percent reduction in QSBS gains actually realized in Oregon after the tax change. Captures lock-in, 1045 rollovers, and deferred exits.
- **Rationale**: Capital gains realization is highly elastic. A 5%-9% range captures a defensible first-order response to imposing a 9.9% state levy on gains that were previously fully exempt.
- **Sources**: [Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains (NBER)](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27705/w27705.pdf), [Behavioral Responses to Capital Gains (Budget Lab)](https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/behavioral-responses-capital-gains-realizations)

#### Pre-Exit Flight Risk

- **ID**: `founderFlightRisk`
- **Unit**: %
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 10 - 20
- **Slider Range**: 0 - 40
- **Distribution**: normal
- **Evidence Level**: research
- **Description**: Share of each annual founder exit cohort that changes domicile before realizing the gain, typically by moving to Washington.
- **Rationale**: A 10%-20% range reflects high-earner migration evidence under large marginal tax shocks. This applies to the current year's liquidity cohort, not the whole founder population.
- **Sources**: [Rauh & Shyu: Behavioral Responses to State Income Taxation of High Earners (NBER / AEJ 2024)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w26349), [Portland (OR) & Vancouver (WA) Tax Comparison 2024](https://www.greaterportlandinc.com/media/userfiles/subsite_214/files/OR%20%26%20WA%20Tax%20Comparison%202024.pdf), [Portland to Vancouver Relocation Trends (2025 Guide)](https://greenbuckrealestate.com/blog/portland-to-vancouver-relocation-trends-explained)

#### Ongoing Exodus (per biennium)

- **ID**: `founderOngoingExodus`
- **Unit**: %
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 3 - 7
- **Slider Range**: 0 - 20
- **Distribution**: normal
- **Evidence Level**: research
- **Description**: Share of founders who initially stay in Oregon but leave in each later two-year window once the policy shock is in place.
- **Rationale**: A 3%-7% biennial range centers near the 2.4% annual millionaire migration rate documented by Young et al., translated into a founder-relevant two-year window and annualized in the dashboard.
- **Sources**: [Young et al.: Millionaire Migration and Taxation of the Elite (ASR)](https://cristobalyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Millionaire_migration_Jun16ASRFeature.pdf), [Rauh & Shyu: Behavioral Responses to State Income Taxation of High Earners (NBER / AEJ 2024)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w26349)

#### Inbound Founder Penalty (per biennium)

- **ID**: `founderInboundPenalty`
- **Unit**: %
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 10 - 20
- **Slider Range**: 0 - 35
- **Distribution**: normal
- **Evidence Level**: research
- **Description**: Long-run reduction in new founders moving to Oregon or starting their next company here after the policy change.
- **Rationale**: A 10%-20% range reflects Moretti & Wilson's results for tax-sensitive star scientists and inventors. The penalty compounds over time as fewer founders choose Oregon for their next company.
- **Sources**: [Moretti & Wilson: State Taxes and the Geographical Location of Top Earners (AER, 2017)](https://eml.berkeley.edu/~moretti/taxes.pdf), [WA Dept of Revenue Border Tax Study](https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/Border%2520Issues.pdf)

#### Vancouver Arbitrage Multiplier

- **ID**: `founderVancouverMultiplier`
- **Unit**: x
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 1.3 - 2
- **Slider Range**: 1 - 3
- **Distribution**: normal
- **Evidence Level**: directional
- **Description**: Border-proximity multiplier applied to founder flight risk, ongoing exodus, and the inbound founder penalty.
- **Rationale**: Portland's unusual weakness is that founders can cross the Columbia River without leaving the metro labor market, investors, or social graph. A 1.3x-2.0x range captures that near-frictionless arbitrage.
- **Sources**: [WA Dept of Revenue Border Tax Study](https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/Border%2520Issues.pdf), [Portland to Vancouver Relocation Trends (2025 Guide)](https://greenbuckrealestate.com/blog/portland-to-vancouver-relocation-trends-explained)

#### Founder Annual Income After Exit

- **ID**: `founderAnnualIncome`
- **Unit**: $M/yr
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 1.2 - 2
- **Slider Range**: 0.2 - 5
- **Distribution**: lognormal
- **Evidence Level**: directional
- **Description**: Annual personal income tax base a successful founder contributes after exit if they remain an Oregon resident.
- **Rationale**: $1.2M-$2.0M/yr captures post-exit founder income from salary, new company compensation, portfolio income, and recurring realizations. The goal is to model the durable tax base, not a one-time liquidity spike.
- **Sources**: [Oregon Income Tax Calculator (SmartAsset)](https://smartasset.com/taxes/oregon-tax-calculator), [Portland Metro Chamber 2025 State of the Economy](https://portlandmetrochamber.com/resources/2025-state-of-the-economy/), [Portland (OR) & Vancouver (WA) Tax Comparison 2024](https://www.greaterportlandinc.com/media/userfiles/subsite_214/files/OR%20%26%20WA%20Tax%20Comparison%202024.pdf)

#### Effective State Tax Rate on Founder Income

- **ID**: `founderEffectiveTaxRate`
- **Unit**: %
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 8.5 - 9.9
- **Slider Range**: 0 - 15
- **Distribution**: normal
- **Evidence Level**: research
- **Description**: Effective Oregon tax rate applied to the founder's ongoing personal income after exit.
- **Rationale**: 8.5%-9.9% spans a realistic effective state burden for high-income founders while staying below the headline Portland combined rate.
- **Sources**: [Oregon Income Tax Calculator (SmartAsset)](https://smartasset.com/taxes/oregon-tax-calculator), [Portland (OR) & Vancouver (WA) Tax Comparison 2024](https://www.greaterportlandinc.com/media/userfiles/subsite_214/files/OR%20%26%20WA%20Tax%20Comparison%202024.pdf)

#### Annual Business Tax Base per Founder

- **ID**: `founderBusinessTax`
- **Unit**: $M/yr
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 0.15 - 0.4
- **Slider Range**: 0.02 - 1.5
- **Distribution**: lognormal
- **Evidence Level**: directional
- **Description**: Annual state and local business/payroll taxes that follow the founder's next company, team, and operating footprint if they stay in Oregon.
- **Rationale**: $0.15M-$0.40M/yr is a coarse proxy for the payroll, transit, and business-tax stream a post-exit founder can anchor through a new startup or growth company.
- **Sources**: [SB 1507 measure overview (OLIS)](https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Measures/Overview/SB1507), [Portland Metro Chamber 2025 State of the Economy](https://portlandmetrochamber.com/resources/2025-state-of-the-economy/)

#### Average Founder Exit Size

- **ID**: `founderAverageExitSize`
- **Unit**: $M
- **Default Range (P20-P80)**: 12 - 22
- **Slider Range**: 2 - 50
- **Distribution**: lognormal
- **Evidence Level**: assumption
- **Description**: Average taxable QSBS gain per founder exit used to translate the LRO revenue baseline into the number of founder exit events in a typical year.
- **Rationale**: $12M-$22M represents meaningful founder outcomes short of unicorn-only exits, adjusted upward from $10M-$20M to reflect the OBBBA (July 2025) expansion of the QSBS gain exclusion cap from $10M to $15M and the corporate gross asset threshold from $50M to $75M. The larger cap shifts the distribution of qualifying exits upward. Smaller exits create many more founders; larger exits imply fewer, higher-value cohorts.
- **Sources**: [SB 1507 measure overview (OLIS)](https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Measures/Overview/SB1507), [SB 1507 LRO Measure Analysis](https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Downloads/MeasureAnalysisDocument/94494), [The OBBBA: How New QSBS Rules Affect Startups and Investors (Baker Donelson)](https://www.bakerdonelson.com/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-how-new-qsbs-rules-and-related-provisions-affect-startups-and-investors), [Tax Reform 2025: What the OBBBA Means for Startups & VC + QSBS in NJ (Lowenstein Sandler)](https://www.lowenstein.com/news-insights/publications/client-alerts/tax-reform-2025-what-the-obbba-means-for-startups-venture-capital-plus-qsbs-in-new-jersey-tax)

## LRO Projected Revenue Schedule

Published by the Oregon Legislative Revenue Office in the SB 1507 measure analysis.

| Biennium | Revenue ($M) |
|----------|-------------|
| 2025-27 | $38.9M |
| 2027-29 | $56.5M |
| 2029-31 | $83M |

## Research Highlights

Key findings organized by research area, drawn from the evidence report.

### Revenue Baseline

Start with what the LRO says the bill raises before comparing any modeled loss channel.

**LRO Projected Revenue (Published 6-Year Window)**: $178.4 M over 6 years

The SB 1507 measure analysis reports QSBS disconnect revenue of $38.9M, $56.5M, and $83.0M across the 2025-27, 2027-29, and 2029-31 biennia.

_The dashboard annualizes those rows into Years 1-6 as $19.45M, $28.25M, and $41.5M. For custom horizons past Year 6, the model carries forward the 2029-31 annualized rate because the published LRO table stops there._

### Who Uses QSBS?

National Treasury data establishes the baseline: who files, how much is excluded, and how concentrated the gains really are.

**National QSBS Claimants (2012–2022)**: 217,000 individuals + 25,000 trusts

Treasury OTA WP-127 provides the first comprehensive empirical study of QSBS utilization. $140B+ in total exclusions claimed nationally over the period.

_Oregon's ~700 annual claimants represent roughly 2% of the national pool, consistent with the state's share of venture activity._

**Gain Concentration: 94% vs 75%**: 75% to >$1M TPI (Treasury) vs 94% (OCPP)

Proponents cite 94% concentration to households with income over $1 million. Treasury data from actual e-filed returns shows 75%. Both are concentrated, but the 19-point gap affects the distributional equity argument.

_The 94% figure comes from ITEP analysis with unpublished methodology. Treasury's 75% is from e-filed returns with full audit trail._

### Tax Stack & Competitiveness

The OR-versus-WA spread is the incentive shock that makes later migration and relocation evidence matter.

**Oregon Corporate Tax Competitiveness**: 49th in the nation (2026)

Tax Foundation's 2026 Index shows Oregon has fallen further in corporate tax competitiveness than any other state since 2020. CNBC ranked Oregon 39th for business, down from top 20.

_This baseline means any further disconnection operates on a firm base already statistically 'on the margin' for relocation._

**Portland Combined Top Marginal Rate**: 14.69% (2nd highest in US)

State 9.9% + Preschool for All 3.0% + Metro Supportive Housing 1.0% + other local. Only exceeded by New York City. Portland's top brackets trigger at $125K vs NYC at $25M.

_Washington state has 0% personal income tax (7% capital gains tax above $262K, QSBS exempt). A founder in Portland versus Vancouver faces a roughly 14.69% differential on income._

### Migration Pressure

These signals show Oregon is already losing income and higher earners before adding a QSBS-specific tax shock.

**Annual Millionaire Outflow from Oregon**: ~1,000 millionaires/yr

Oregon loses approximately 1,000 millionaires annually. IRS migration data shows Oregon losing about $530M in personal income per year due to outmigration.

_Average income of movers to Clark County is $105,800 versus $73,540 for those moving to Multnomah County, indicating brain drain of productive capital toward the tax-advantaged side of the river._

**Annual Personal Income Outflow**: $530 M/yr lost to outmigration (IRS data)

IRS migration data shows Oregon losing approximately $530 million in personal income annually. Average income of movers to Clark County is $105,800 versus $73,540 for those moving to Multnomah County.

_The critical insight is not just population movement but wealth-selective outflow toward the tax-advantaged side of the river._

**Portland Regional Job Performance**: -8,800 jobs (2025), 4th worst US metro

Portland lost 8,800 jobs in 2025 during a period of national expansion. Clark County, Washington employment is at 114% of 2020 levels. Portland ranked 80th of 81 cities in real estate attractiveness.

_The divergence is visible in the Portland-Vancouver corridor. Clark County accounts for 57% of regional multifamily permits, Portland 29%._

### Behavioral Response Evidence

These priors explain why a static, no-migration interpretation of the tax base is not credible.

**Star Talent Migration Elasticity**: 1.6–1.8 (99th percentile earners)

A 1% increase in after-tax income in a neighboring state yields a 1.8% long-run increase in net talent flow. Sensitivity is highly non-linear, with top earners far more responsive than median earners.

_The key point for this model is directional: tax differentials at the top of the distribution matter disproportionately._

**Massachusetts Surtax: Real-World Outcome**: $4.2B net AGI outflow (2023)

After Massachusetts imposed a 4% surtax on income above $1M in 2023, IRS data shows $4.2B in net AGI left the state — an 8% YoY increase. High-earners ($200K+) accounted for 70% of outflows, more than double the 2019 share. Massachusetts fell from 36th to 43rd on the Tax Foundation index.

_Direct empirical precedent for Oregon: a state added a surtax targeting high earners and immediately saw accelerated wealth-selective outmigration to zero-tax neighbors (NH, FL). Oregon's 9.9% top rate already exceeds Massachusetts' pre-surtax 5% flat rate._

**HQ Relocation Elasticity**: 16.8% increase per 1% tax hike

Chow et al. (Management Science 2022) found that a 1% increase in the corporate tax rate raises headquarters relocation probability by 16.8%. The response is asymmetric: cuts reverse less of the damage than hikes create.

_Peer-reviewed evidence with controls for economic and political factors. Oregon's 49th-place corporate tax ranking means firms are already on the margin._

### Border Arbitrage & Regional Capture

Clark County can absorb talent and firms without forcing them to leave the metro labor market, which makes local tax arbitrage unusually powerful.

**GPI vs CREDC Recruitment Pipeline**: GPI: 690 jobs realized of 13,204 potential (5.2%)

Greater Portland Inc secured 5 wins from 690 projects in 2024. CREDC (Clark County, WA) secured 9 wins, 42 total over 2021-2024, generating $1.69B in capital investment.

_The 12,514-job gap between potential and realized represents missed economic opportunity. Vancouver is capturing a disproportionate share of regional wins._

**Intra-regional Tax Sensitivity**: 10–15% activity loss per 10% relative tax hike

Meta-analyses show intra-regional taxes (Portland versus Vancouver) are more consequential than inter-regional taxes because firms do not need to abandon local labor markets or supply chains.

_WA DOR border work documents strong border elasticities. The Vancouver advantage is increasingly exploited for income-tax arbitrage by remote and hybrid workers._

**Traded-Sector Establishment Dynamics**: Metals/Machinery/Electronics: 1.00 entry/exit ratio

OSU analysis of Oregon business dynamics from 2012-2022 shows high-paying traded sectors at net stagnation while lower-multiplier sectors keep growing.

_The traded sector that brings export income and new capital into the state is stagnating, which increases the cost of losing scale-up firms and founders._

### Company Departure Signals

This is the concrete company pool and recruitment funnel that turns broad incentives into actual departures.

**Out-of-State Business Recruitment**: 24% recruited → 68% convert to exit

The IPRE study found that 24% of Oregon traded-sector businesses were actively approached by out-of-state recruiters, and 68% of those approached moved or expanded outside Oregon.

_Primary recruiting states are Washington, Texas, and California. This is a general business-climate signal, not a QSBS-only measure._

**Oregon Mid-Size Firm Pool (Dynamic)**: 319 starting firms, decaying over horizon

Oregon has 319 private firms with 500+ employees as of Q1 2025. These firms are just 0.2% of all firms but account for 28% of private employment and 33% of wages. The model tracks this pool dynamically: each year ~2.5% organic growth (new firms graduating into the 500+ class) is offset by departures, yielding net decay.

_In Washington County, 500+ employee firms represent 0.5% of firms but 35% of jobs and 45% of wages, showing how concentrated the tax base is. Organic growth rate derived from BLS Business Dynamics Statistics (Oregon establishment entry/exit data)._

**IPRE Recruitment-to-Exit Funnel**: 24% recruited × 68% convert = 16.3% joint exit probability

The simulation uses the IPRE sample sizes directly: Beta(97, 305) for recruitment and Beta(66, 32) for conversion, annualized over a 3-year trailing window and amplified by the Chow elasticity.

_This is the modeling bridge between the broad business-climate evidence and the company-departure channel in the Monte Carlo model._

### The Case For SB 1507

Understanding the proponents' strongest arguments strengthens the analysis by testing where the model's assumptions diverge from the legislative rationale.

**EITC Return on Investment**: $1.58 per $1 allocated

The EITC expansion to 14% (17% for dependents under 3) reaches 200,000+ low-income households. Lower-income cohorts have marginal propensity to consume near 1.0, creating genuine economic multiplier effects.

_The EITC argument is genuinely strong economics. The question is whether the funding source — taxing highly mobile capital — is sustainable over the projection horizon._

### Startup & Capital Formation Stress

The startup channel sits on top of an already-contracted Oregon venture market rather than a healthy baseline ecosystem.

**Oregon VC Funding Trajectory**: $2.8 B (2021) → $586 M (2024), -79%

Oregon venture funding collapsed far faster than the national slowdown. Deal sizes fell 26% while the national average rose 28%. Oregon still forms companies, but it struggles to scale them.

_Those scale-up companies are the ones most likely to be recruited by other states, which makes the startup and founder channels more fragile than a static statewide average suggests._

## Source Catalog

- [SB 1507 measure overview (OLIS)](https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Measures/Overview/SB1507)
- [Tax Foundation 2026 State Tax Competitiveness Index](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/state/2026-state-tax-competitiveness-index/)
- [Oregon: Who Pays? 7th Edition (ITEP)](https://itep.org/oregon-who-pays-7th-edition/)
- [Oregon payroll tax facts (Paylocity)](https://www.paylocity.com/resources/tax-compliance/tax-facts/oregon/)
- [OR current tax/contribution rates](https://www.oregon.gov/employ/businesses/pages/current-tax-rate.aspx)
- [State Taxation and Reallocation of Business Activity (AEA)](https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2016/retrieve.php?pdfid=12223&tk=bQ27F2KA)
- [Moretti & Wilson: State Taxes and the Geographical Location of Top Earners (AER, 2017)](https://eml.berkeley.edu/~moretti/taxes.pdf)
- [Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains (NBER)](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27705/w27705.pdf)
- [Behavioral Responses to Capital Gains (Budget Lab)](https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/behavioral-responses-capital-gains-realizations)
- [WA Dept of Revenue Border Tax Study](https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/Border%2520Issues.pdf)
- [Oregon Business summary of the UO IPRE business recruitment study](https://oregonbusiness.com/study-other-states-poach-oregon-businesses/)
- [Greater Portland Inc 2024 Impact Statement](https://greaterportlandinc.com/media/userfiles/subsite_214/files/2024-EOY-Impact-Statement-Final.pdf)
- [CREDC 2024 Annual Report](https://credc.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/CREDC_AnnualReport_2024.pdf)
- [SB 1507 LRO Measure Analysis](https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Downloads/MeasureAnalysisDocument/94494)
- [Portland (OR) & Vancouver (WA) Tax Comparison 2024](https://www.greaterportlandinc.com/media/userfiles/subsite_214/files/OR%20%26%20WA%20Tax%20Comparison%202024.pdf)
- [Current State of Venture Capital: Oregon Trends](https://elevate.vc/current-state-venture-capital-industry-oregon-trends-challenges/)
- [Portland Metro Chamber 2025 State of the Economy](https://portlandmetrochamber.com/resources/2025-state-of-the-economy/)
- [WW: Departure of Oregon Companies (Vollum interview)](https://www.wweek.com/news/business/2025/06/13/the-departure-of-oregon-companies-speaks-to-a-bigger-problem-for-the-state/)
- [Oregon Venture Fund: Trade-offs to Investing Regionally](https://www.oregonventurefund.com/perspectives/trade-offs-to-investing-regionally)
- [Oregon Income Tax Calculator (SmartAsset)](https://smartasset.com/taxes/oregon-tax-calculator)
- [SBA Office of Advocacy: Oregon 2024 Profile](https://advocacy.sba.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Oregon.pdf)
- [Chow et al.: Corporate Income Taxes and HQ Relocations (Management Science, 2022)](https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2913&context=soa_research)
- [QualityInfo: Snapshot of Oregon Firms by Size Class (2025)](https://qualityinfo.org/-/a-snapshot-of-oregon-firms-by-size-class-2025)
- [OSU: Oregon Business Dynamics — Entries and Exits 2012-2022](https://blogs.oregonstate.edu/appliedeconomics/2026/01/07/oregons-business-dynamics-an-analysis-of-entries-and-exits-2012-2022/)
- [Portland Metro Chamber 2026 State of the Economy](https://portlandmetrochamber.com/resources/2026-state-of-the-economy/)
- [Portland to Vancouver Relocation Trends (2025 Guide)](https://greenbuckrealestate.com/blog/portland-to-vancouver-relocation-trends-explained)
- [Rauh & Shyu: Behavioral Responses to State Income Taxation of High Earners (NBER / AEJ 2024)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w26349)
- [Young et al.: Millionaire Migration and Taxation of the Elite (ASR)](https://cristobalyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Millionaire_migration_Jun16ASRFeature.pdf)
- [Campello & Junqueira: Tax Incentives and Venture Capital Risk-Taking (Oxford Saïd working paper, 2025)](https://oxfordtax.sbs.ox.ac.uk/sitefiles/wp25.10-guilherme-junqueira.pdf)
- [Oregon DOR: Tax Year 2023 Personal Income Tax Statistics](https://www.oregon.gov/dor/gov-research/pages/personal_income_tax_statistics.aspx)
- [Angel Returns Beat All Asset Classes (ACA / Angel Resource Institute)](https://angelcapitalassociation.org/blog/angel-returns-beat-classes/)
- [Wiltbank & Boeker: ACEF Angel Performance Project (ACA / Kauffman Foundation)](https://www.angelcapitalassociation.org/data/Documents/Resources/AngelGroupResarch/1d%20-%20Resources%20-%20Research/ACEF%20Angel%20Performance%20Project%2004.28.09.pdf)
- [Bloomberg: Massachusetts Lost $4.2B in Income After Millionaire Tax (2026)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-20/massachusetts-lost-4-billion-of-income-after-millionaire-tax)
- [Elevate Capital Celebrates 10-Year Milestone (PRNewswire, 2025)](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/elevate-capital-celebrates-10-year-milestone-in-funding-underrepresented-entrepreneurs-302701729.html)
- [Startup Fundraising Indicators: A Guide (OAK'S LAB)](https://www.oakslab.com/story/startup-fundraising-indicators)
- [The Ultimate Startup Guide With Statistics 2024-2025 (Founders Forum)](https://ff.co/startup-statistics-guide/)
- [Series B Hiring Strategy: Scaling from Generalists to Specialists (Ampleo, 2026)](https://ampleo.com/2026/03/04/series-b-hiring-strategy-scaling-from-scrappy-generalists-to-strategic-specialists/)
- [Q4 2024 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor](https://nvca.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Q4-2024-PitchBook-NVCA-Venture-Monitor.pdf)
- [Oregon Blue Book: Economy — Wages](https://sos.oregon.gov/blue-book/Pages/facts/economy-wages.aspx)
- [A Guide to Startup Compensation (Kruze Consulting)](https://kruzeconsulting.com/blog/startup-compensation-guide/)
- [Oregon Payroll Tax Calculator & Employer Requirements (GoCo)](https://www.goco.io/blog/oregon-employer-payroll-taxes-guide)
- [Payroll and Self-Employment Tax Information (TriMet)](https://trimet.org/taxinfo/)
- [Oregon DOR: Statewide Transit Tax](https://www.oregon.gov/dor/programs/businesses/pages/statewide-transit-tax.aspx)
- [Tax Reform 2025: What the OBBBA Means for Startups & VC + QSBS in NJ (Lowenstein Sandler)](https://www.lowenstein.com/news-insights/publications/client-alerts/tax-reform-2025-what-the-obbba-means-for-startups-venture-capital-plus-qsbs-in-new-jersey-tax)
- [The OBBBA: How New QSBS Rules Affect Startups and Investors (Baker Donelson)](https://www.bakerdonelson.com/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-how-new-qsbs-rules-and-related-provisions-affect-startups-and-investors)
- [U.S. Treasury OTA Working Paper 127: QSBS Exclusion (Jan 2025)](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/131/WP-127.pdf)
- [Oregon DOR Biennial Tax Expenditure Reports](https://www.oregon.gov/dor/gov-research/pages/research-reports.aspx)

## Works Cited

1. Tax Foundation. 2026 State Tax Competitiveness Index. [https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/state/2026-state-tax-competitiveness-index/](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/state/2026-state-tax-competitiveness-index/)
2. Tax Foundation. 2026 State Tax Competitiveness Index: Interactive Tool. [https://taxfoundation.org/statetaxindex/](https://taxfoundation.org/statetaxindex/)
3. ITEP. Oregon: Who Pays? 7th Edition. [https://itep.org/oregon-who-pays-7th-edition/](https://itep.org/oregon-who-pays-7th-edition/)
4. Paylocity. Oregon payroll tax facts. [https://www.paylocity.com/resources/tax-compliance/tax-facts/oregon/](https://www.paylocity.com/resources/tax-compliance/tax-facts/oregon/)
5. Oregon.gov. Current Tax and Contribution Rates. [https://www.oregon.gov/employ/businesses/pages/current-tax-rate.aspx](https://www.oregon.gov/employ/businesses/pages/current-tax-rate.aspx)
6. AEA. State Taxation and the Reallocation of Business Activity: Evidence from Establishment-Level Data. [https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2016/retrieve.php?pdfid=12223&tk=bQ27F2KA](https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2016/retrieve.php?pdfid=12223&tk=bQ27F2KA)
7. NBER Working Paper 27705. The Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains and Revenue-Maximizing Rates. [https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27705/w27705.pdf](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27705/w27705.pdf)
8. Budget Lab, Yale. Behavioral Responses to Capital Gains Realizations. [https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/behavioral-responses-capital-gains-realizations](https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/behavioral-responses-capital-gains-realizations)
9. WA Dept of Revenue. The Border Tax Problem. [https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/Border%2520Issues.pdf](https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/Border%2520Issues.pdf)
10. Oregon Business. Study: Other States Poach Oregon Businesses (UO IPRE). [https://oregonbusiness.com/study-other-states-poach-oregon-businesses/](https://oregonbusiness.com/study-other-states-poach-oregon-businesses/)
11. Greater Portland Inc. 2024 EOY Impact Statement. [https://greaterportlandinc.com/media/userfiles/subsite_214/files/2024-EOY-Impact-Statement-Final.pdf](https://greaterportlandinc.com/media/userfiles/subsite_214/files/2024-EOY-Impact-Statement-Final.pdf)
12. CREDC. 2024 Annual Report. [https://credc.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/CREDC_AnnualReport_2024.pdf](https://credc.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/CREDC_AnnualReport_2024.pdf)
13. Oregon LRO. SB 1507 Measure Analysis. [https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Downloads/MeasureAnalysisDocument/94494](https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Downloads/MeasureAnalysisDocument/94494)
14. GPI. Portland (OR) & Vancouver (WA) Tax Comparison 2024. [https://www.greaterportlandinc.com/media/userfiles/subsite_214/files/OR%20%26%20WA%20Tax%20Comparison%202024.pdf](https://www.greaterportlandinc.com/media/userfiles/subsite_214/files/OR%20%26%20WA%20Tax%20Comparison%202024.pdf)
15. Elevate VC. Current State of Venture Capital: Oregon Trends and Challenges. [https://elevate.vc/current-state-venture-capital-industry-oregon-trends-challenges/](https://elevate.vc/current-state-venture-capital-industry-oregon-trends-challenges/)
16. Portland Metro Chamber. 2025 State of the Economy. [https://portlandmetrochamber.com/resources/2025-state-of-the-economy/](https://portlandmetrochamber.com/resources/2025-state-of-the-economy/)
17. Willamette Week. The Departure of Oregon Companies Speaks to a Bigger Problem (Vollum interview). [https://www.wweek.com/news/business/2025/06/13/the-departure-of-oregon-companies-speaks-to-a-bigger-problem-for-the-state/](https://www.wweek.com/news/business/2025/06/13/the-departure-of-oregon-companies-speaks-to-a-bigger-problem-for-the-state/)
18. Oregon Venture Fund. Trade-offs to Investing Regionally. [https://www.oregonventurefund.com/perspectives/trade-offs-to-investing-regionally](https://www.oregonventurefund.com/perspectives/trade-offs-to-investing-regionally)
19. SmartAsset. Oregon Income Tax Calculator. [https://smartasset.com/taxes/oregon-tax-calculator](https://smartasset.com/taxes/oregon-tax-calculator)
20. SBA Office of Advocacy. Oregon 2024 Small Business Profile. [https://advocacy.sba.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Oregon.pdf](https://advocacy.sba.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Oregon.pdf)
21. Lincoln Chronicle. Oregon's population barely changes as Washington adds more than 70,000. [https://lincolnchronicle.org/oregons-population-barely-changes-as-washington-adds-more-than-70000-in-2025/](https://lincolnchronicle.org/oregons-population-barely-changes-as-washington-adds-more-than-70000-in-2025/)
22. Portland Metro Chamber. 2026 State of the Economy. [https://portlandmetrochamber.com/resources/2026-state-of-the-economy/](https://portlandmetrochamber.com/resources/2026-state-of-the-economy/)
23. OPB. Oregon will partially disconnect state tax code from new federal code. [https://www.opb.org/article/2026/02/26/oregon-partially-disconnect-tax-code-curb-revenue-loss/](https://www.opb.org/article/2026/02/26/oregon-partially-disconnect-tax-code-curb-revenue-loss/)
24. Oregon Legislature. SB 1507 2026 Regular Session — Measures Overview. [https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Measures/Overview/SB1507](https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Measures/Overview/SB1507)
25. Tax Foundation. Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) Exclusion. [https://taxfoundation.org/blog/qualified-small-business-stock-qsbs-exclusion/](https://taxfoundation.org/blog/qualified-small-business-stock-qsbs-exclusion/)
26. Moretti, E. and Wilson, D. 'The Effect of State Taxes on the Geographical Location of Top Earners: Evidence from Star Scientists.' American Economic Review, 2017. [https://eml.berkeley.edu/~moretti/taxes.pdf](https://eml.berkeley.edu/~moretti/taxes.pdf)
27. CREDC. 2023 Annual Report. [https://credc.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/CREDC_AnnualReport_2023_Final.pdf](https://credc.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/CREDC_AnnualReport_2023_Final.pdf)
28. CREDC. 2022 Annual Report. [https://credc.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/CREDC_AnnualReport_2022_SinglePages.pdf](https://credc.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/CREDC_AnnualReport_2022_SinglePages.pdf)
29. Green Buck Real Estate. Portland to Vancouver Relocation Trends. [https://greenbuckrealestate.com/blog/portland-to-vancouver-relocation-trends-explained](https://greenbuckrealestate.com/blog/portland-to-vancouver-relocation-trends-explained)
30. United Van Lines. 2025 National Movers Study. [https://www.unitedvanlines.com/newsroom/2025-national-movers-study](https://www.unitedvanlines.com/newsroom/2025-national-movers-study)
31. OSU Applied Economics. Oregon's Business Dynamics: Entries and Exits (2012-2022). [https://blogs.oregonstate.edu/appliedeconomics/2026/01/07/oregons-business-dynamics-an-analysis-of-entries-and-exits-2012-2022/](https://blogs.oregonstate.edu/appliedeconomics/2026/01/07/oregons-business-dynamics-an-analysis-of-entries-and-exits-2012-2022/)
32. Oregon Venture Fund. Founders are Our Customers. [https://www.oregonventurefund.com/perspectives/founders-are-our-customers](https://www.oregonventurefund.com/perspectives/founders-are-our-customers)
33. GoCo. Oregon Payroll Tax Calculator & Employer Requirements. [https://www.goco.io/blog/oregon-employer-payroll-taxes-guide](https://www.goco.io/blog/oregon-employer-payroll-taxes-guide)
34. Oregon Business & Industry. OBI Releases Report on Oregon's Business Tax Burden. [https://oregonbusinessindustry.com/obi-releases-report-on-oregons-business-tax-burden/](https://oregonbusinessindustry.com/obi-releases-report-on-oregons-business-tax-burden/)
35. Portland Metro Chamber. 2026 State of Downtown & the Central City. [https://portlandmetrochamber.com/resources/2026-state-of-downtown/](https://portlandmetrochamber.com/resources/2026-state-of-downtown/)
36. WA Dept of Revenue. Capital Gains Tax. [https://dor.wa.gov/taxes-rates/other-taxes/capital-gains-tax](https://dor.wa.gov/taxes-rates/other-taxes/capital-gains-tax)
37. Oregon Legislature. SB 1507 2026 Regular Session — measure overview and legislative materials. [https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Measures/Overview/SB1507](https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Measures/Overview/SB1507)
38. Chow, T., Hoopes, J.L., and Maydew, E.L. 'US Multinationals and the Tax Costs of Relocating Headquarters.' Management Science, 2022. [https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2913&context=soa_research](https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2913&context=soa_research)
39. Rauh, J.D. and Shyu, R. 'Behavioral Responses to State Income Taxation of High Earners: Evidence from California.' NBER Working Paper 26349; later published in American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2024. [https://www.nber.org/papers/w26349](https://www.nber.org/papers/w26349)
40. QualityInfo. A Snapshot of Oregon Firms by Size Class, 2025. [https://qualityinfo.org/-/a-snapshot-of-oregon-firms-by-size-class-2025](https://qualityinfo.org/-/a-snapshot-of-oregon-firms-by-size-class-2025)
41. Campello, M. and Junqueira, G. 'Tax Incentives and Venture Capital Risk-Taking.' Oxford Saïd Business School working paper, 2025. [https://oxfordtax.sbs.ox.ac.uk/sitefiles/wp25.10-guilherme-junqueira.pdf](https://oxfordtax.sbs.ox.ac.uk/sitefiles/wp25.10-guilherme-junqueira.pdf)
42. Young, C., Varner, C., Lurie, I.Z., and Prisinzano, R. 'Millionaire Migration and Taxation of the Elite.' American Sociological Review. [https://cristobalyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Millionaire_migration_Jun16ASRFeature.pdf](https://cristobalyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Millionaire_migration_Jun16ASRFeature.pdf)
43. Bloomberg. 'Massachusetts Lost $4.2 Billion in Income After Millionaire Tax Took Effect.' March 20, 2026. IRS migration data analysis. [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-20/massachusetts-lost-4-billion-of-income-after-millionaire-tax](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-20/massachusetts-lost-4-billion-of-income-after-millionaire-tax)
44. Abdulrauf, Auten, Organ, White. 'Quantifying the 100% Exclusion of Capital Gains on Small Business Stock.' U.S. Treasury Office of Tax Analysis Working Paper 127, January 2025. [https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/131/WP-127.pdf](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/131/WP-127.pdf)
45. Oregon Department of Revenue. Biennial Tax Expenditure Reports (2019–2025). [https://www.oregon.gov/dor/gov-research/pages/research-reports.aspx](https://www.oregon.gov/dor/gov-research/pages/research-reports.aspx)
46. Joint Committee on Taxation. Estimated Budget Effects of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' (2025). [https://www.jct.gov/publications/2025/jcx-17-25/](https://www.jct.gov/publications/2025/jcx-17-25/)
47. Oregon Revenue Coalition. Testimony Supporting SB 1507, Senate Finance and Revenue Committee (February 2026). [https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Measures/Overview/SB1507](https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2026R1/Measures/Overview/SB1507)
48. Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. Analysis of QSBS Distributional Impact, prepared for Oregon Center for Public Policy (February 3, 2026). [https://itep.org/](https://itep.org/)
49. Ballard Spahr LLP. 'Oregon Would Tax Oregonians on All Gain from the Sale of QSBS Under Proposed Bill.' February 2026. [https://www.ballardspahr.com/insights/alerts-and-articles/2026/02/oregon-would-tax-oregonians-on-all-gain-from-the-sale-of-qsbs-under-proposed-bill](https://www.ballardspahr.com/insights/alerts-and-articles/2026/02/oregon-would-tax-oregonians-on-all-gain-from-the-sale-of-qsbs-under-proposed-bill)