Model
Live Tool
Economic Simulator
Tax Competitiveness
Oregon Company Departures Model
A departures-only simulator for Oregon tax competitiveness, company migration, and SB 1507 transmission.
A Monte Carlo model focused only on company departures and footprint leakage. It translates Oregon's recurring tax stack, Portland-area surtaxes, and SB 1507 founder sensitivity into year-by-year revenue-at-risk scenarios.
Story
The original SB 1507 model bundled founders, startups, investors, and companies into one fiscal argument. This sibling model narrows the lens to a single question: how much recurring state and local tax revenue is at risk if Oregon keeps losing company headquarters, office footprints, and marginal expansions to more competitive states?
Focus
Policy modeling for business migration, tax competitiveness, and Oregon-specific company departure risk.
Medium: Interactive Simulator
Technical Highlights
- Departures-only Monte Carlo engine using year-by-year firm attrition and replenishment.
- Bottom-up tax footprint math built from payroll, revenue, margin, CAT exposure, and Portland-area surtaxes.
- Research surface covering HQ moves, footprint reductions, and expansion diversion instead of only full relocations.
- Shared model host architecture under /models for future custom simulators.
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