Each release below is pinned to a source commit and preserves its own model engine, parameter defaults, research, and dashboard. Results from different releases should be cited with their displayed date.
Generation 3
August 17, 2026
SB1507 QSBS Revenue Impact Model
Current model with corrected founder, startup, and investor channels and a separated gain, loss, and net dashboard.
- Consolidated the primary parameter catalog from 22 inputs to 17 higher-leverage inputs.
- Folded border proximity into founder flight risk and delayed inbound-founder effects for the QSBS holding period.
- Scaled startup losses by Oregon-resident funding and investor migration by the effective income-rate change.
- Removed the geographic-misallocation adjustment and separated Model from Parameters.
Historical note: The source commit was made August 18 and assigned the public simulation date August 17 after the final August 17 research revision.
Open this releaseSource 53d8121Source committed August 18, 2026 Generation 2.5
August 9, 2026
SB1507 QSBS Revenue Impact Model
Intermediate model that rebuilt Oregon's QSBS revenue using the ITEP national estimate and an uncertain geographic-allocation vector.
- Kept LRO's $178.4M six-year projection visible as the public anchor while modeling how much revenue survived a geographic-allocation correction.
- Placed Oregon's 2026 QSBS revenue between a $6.2M company-location reconstruction and LRO's $19.45M published estimate.
- Displayed geographic misallocation separately from behavioral losses and allowed readers to restore the state's full revenue assumptions.
- Published the August 9 channel corrections that reduced modeled losses roughly threefold and moved the default six-year net near breakeven.
Historical note: The page header still displayed July 22, but the public revision note inside this model was dated August 9. The geographic-allocation correction was removed on August 17.
Open this releaseSource 1901a59Source committed August 9, 2026 Generation 2
July 22, 2026
SB 1507 Fiscal Impact Model
Elasticity-based founder model with an evidence-derived investor pool and the initial full General Fund bridge.
- Replaced the fixed inbound-founder penalty with migration elasticity and an explicit founder-applicability range.
- Derived the investor pool from Oregon high-income returns and SEC private-market ownership data.
- Tightened model units and added a reproducible model specification.
- Reframed the dashboard around the QSBS disconnect and added the full SB 1507 General Fund bridge.
Historical note: Later July and August code changes continued to display July 22. This archive uses the agreed end-of-day July 22 commit, before those later revisions.
Generation 1.1
April 1, 2026
Company Departures Analysis
A presentation revision of the original 21-parameter engine with a new public heading and distribution-interface improvements.
- Changed the public heading from Fiscal Impact Analysis to Company Departures Analysis.
- Retained the March model engine, parameter catalog, and default assumptions.
- Improved distribution controls and supporting visual styles.
Generation 1
March 24, 2026
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Original public model with 21 primary parameters, a six-year horizon, and companies disabled by default.
- Introduced the original four-channel Monte Carlo model and interactive derivation trees.
- Used generic estimated-revenue and modeled-revenue-loss dashboard headlines.
- Exposed 21 primary parameters with a 4,000-run, six-year default simulation.
Historical note: The March 24 public label first appeared in this March 29 source commit, so the label date and source commit date differ.
Open this releaseSource 1ae6fb7Source committed March 29, 2026 